Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

The New People party is priced at an extreme 3¢ with a staggering 7182% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting near-zero market confidence in this relatively new Russian political entity winning the most Duma seats against established parties like United Russia. Despite solid $34.6M open interest, the 0¢ spread and modest $367K daily volume suggest limited active trading at these tail-probability levels, with the 32 Cliff Risk Index indicating potential liquidity challenges near resolution. The price has doubled from 2¢ to 3¢ over seven days with 164 days to expiry, though this modest movement likely reflects low absolute dollar flows rather than meaningful conviction shifts about New People's electoral prospects.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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