Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing SC-01 as heavily Republican-favored at just 25¢, implying a 75% GOP win probability, which aligns with the district's historical lean. The 545.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the extreme underdog positioning, though the market shows minimal recent price movement (24¢ to 25¢ over 7 days) and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting low liquidity despite $21.7M open interest. With 201 days to expiration and a narrow 2¢ spread, this market appears fairly settled on Republican dominance but lacks active trading to validate the pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade