Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026.

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5¢
Bid/Ask 4/6¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $14,346.68·Closes Jun 9, 2026·48d remaining
0x41c0e67c0d783eeabe9a3e4a9f142963bff2a72e3ce37aa799bcbe6a3407d1bc
7-day price121 snapshots · 2 regime
6¢5¢ current
Apr 84¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14456.0%
IY (No) 40.0%
Adj IY 7228%
CRI 19
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)14456.0%
IY (No)40.0%
Adj IY7228%
CRI19
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:51:02 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x41c0e67c0d783eeabe9a3e4a9f142963bff2a72e3ce37aa799bcbe6a3407d1bc yes 100

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