Will the Republican Party win the SC-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (89%) for Republican victory in SC-04, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $22k open interest suggest thin liquidity and limited recent conviction behind this price. The massive 1,471% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of an illiquid market with extreme skew—while the 22.5% yield on "Yes" appears reasonable, the asymmetry indicates few traders are willing to bet against Republican dominance in this district. With over 200 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 8, there's time for meaningful price movement, but the current setup heavily favors the consensus view rather than representing genuine two-sided price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade