Will the Republican Party win the SC-05 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (90%) for Republican victory in SC-05, but the asymmetric implied yields reveal severe liquidity imbalance—the "No" side offers an extraordinary 1,637% yield versus just 20.2% for "Yes," suggesting minimal backing for a Democratic upset despite 201 days until resolution. With zero 24-hour volume and only $17,717 in open interest, this thin liquidity combined with a cliff risk index of 9 indicates the market could experience sharp repricing if new information emerges, making the current 90¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade