Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1339% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 12¢ price reflects minimal recent trading activity rather than genuine market consensus on Democratic prospects in a traditionally Republican state. The massive volatility (1350% realized) and 3¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity, with only $19,980 in open interest making this a risky venue for meaningful exposure. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest the market is stale and awaiting new information, making the astronomical yield figures unreliable as probability estimates.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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