Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Polymarket, closing September 13, 2026. The Social Democrats are priced at an extremely high 89¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, reflecting strong consensus that they'll win the most seats, though the 30.3% annualized yield on the Yes side suggests some skepticism about their dominance.
Analysis
The Social Democrats are priced at an extremely high 89¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, reflecting strong consensus that they'll win the most seats, though the 30.3% annualized yield on the Yes side suggests some skepticism about their dominance. The No side's astronomical 1982.4% implied yield reveals severe illiquidity on the downside with only $22,411.85 in open interest across $240,517 in 24-hour volume, creating a classic "consensus trap" where contrarian bets face prohibitive pricing. The modest 3¢ price appreciation over seven days and neutral regime score indicate the market has largely settled on this outcome, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 warrants caution given Sweden's volatile political landscape and 149 days until resolution.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe5acfef8707df2e25a99a6e4d9568d033fa063b006022f68375ab3bbcf376818 yes 100