Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats at just 7 cents, implying only a 7% win probability in Tennessee's 2026 gubernatorial race, which reflects the state's strong Republican lean but creates an extreme 2,427% implied yield for contrarian bettors willing to take that tail risk. The 2-cent spread and $26k daily volume suggest reasonable liquidity for a niche political market, though the $25M open interest indicates substantial capital is committed to this low-probability outcome. Notable is the recent price decline from 8 cents to 7 cents over seven days combined with the exceptionally high cliff risk index of 13, suggesting potential volatility or model uncertainty around Democratic viability in this deep-red state.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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