Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.8M in open interest, suggesting the $0.08 price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2099% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic liquidity mirage—while mathematically accurate given the 8¢ price, it's meaningless without actual trading volume to execute at that level. The 12 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score warrant caution, as the market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing once meaningful volume returns, particularly given Tennessee's strong Republican lean in recent cycles.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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