What is the current probability for "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 43¢ (43% implied probability) on Polymarket. 195 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 247.9% and 141.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket.

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43¢

Bid/Ask 42/44¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $140.909·OI $45,784.739·195d remaining

0x34918035a590555ba1fb1d6a019d766ab6e557d63e7f3140b63b4550eee7f417

7-day price24 snapshots · 21 regime

44¢43¢ current

Apr 842¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 247.9%

IY (No) 141.1%

Adj IY 124%

CRI 1

EE 11.000

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	247.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	141.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	124%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	11.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:28:46 PM

SF edge 12.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +12¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x34918035a590555ba1fb1d6a019d766ab6e557d63e7f3140b63b4550eee7f417 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →