Will the Republican Party win the TN-03 House seat?

The 92¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Republican retention of Tennessee's 3rd district, though the extreme 2091.8% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity with only $29,801 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the structural imbalance—the massive yield disparity suggests few traders are willing to bet against Republican dominance in this safely red seat, creating a classic liquidity trap where the No position appears artificially attractive but lacks real market depth.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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