Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing TN-05 as a heavily Republican-favored seat at just 23¢, reflecting the district's strong GOP lean, though the 609% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful uncertainty or potential mispricing given the 201-day timeframe to the election. With zero 24-hour volume despite $23,147 in open interest and only a 1¢ spread, this market shows illiquidity typical of deep red districts, making the high theoretical yield less actionable for traders. The recent 2-point price movement (21¢ to 23¢) and neutral regime score indicate the market is relatively stable, though the 3 Cliff Risk Index warrants attention to potential late-cycle volatility as November 2026 approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade