Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields (322% overall) driven by a massive 644.9% implied yield on the "No" side, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial tail risk for a Republican loss despite the 78% probability favoring GOP victory. With zero 24-hour volume and $17,371 open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, making the tight 2¢ spread potentially misleading about true price discovery. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate this market lacks conviction or recent information flow, leaving it vulnerable to sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade