Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (89%) for Republican victory in TN-07, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $17.6k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price movements. The asymmetric implied yields—22.5% for Yes versus 1,471.7% for No—reflect the lopsided odds, with the No side offering outsized returns but facing 736% risk-adjusted yield, indicating substantial tail risk. With 201 days to expiry and only a 1-cent spread, this appears to be a stable market pricing in a heavily Republican-leaning district, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 warrants caution about potential late-campaign shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade