Will the Democratic Party win the TX-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme conviction in Democratic victory at 93¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $25.9k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The massive 2416.7% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of heavily favored outcomes, though the 13-point Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk that could materialize as the November 2026 election approaches. With over 200 days to expiry, this pricing likely reflects current structural advantages for Democrats in TX-07, but the lack of recent trading activity makes it difficult to assess whether 93¢ represents genuine market consensus or stale pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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