Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?

The Democratic probability in TX-21 has risen 17% over the past week to 14¢, though zero 24-hour volume suggests thin liquidity despite $12.6M open interest and a wide 4¢ spread. The extreme 1117% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine long-shot conviction, though the neutral regime score (0.341) and moderate cliff risk (6) suggest the market hasn't yet crystallized around a clear narrative with 201 days until resolution. This appears to be a low-conviction, illiquid position where the recent price movement may not reflect fundamental shifts in the Texas district's political dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade