Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes side priced at just 8¢ offering a staggering 2091.8% implied yield, while the No side yields only 15.8%, suggesting strong consensus that Republicans will retain this Utah seat. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $38,234 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the long 201-day timeframe to expiration, making this a thin market where large positions could face slippage. The 12 Cliff Risk Index and 1046% risk-adjusted yield warrant caution, as the extreme pricing may reflect either genuine political fundamentals favoring Republicans in UT-04 or simply a lack of Democratic interest in betting on an uphill race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade