Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?

The market is pricing an extremely lopsided outcome with Republicans at 91¢, reflecting Utah's 4th district's deep red lean, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $27.7k open interest suggest minimal liquidity despite the tight 1¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—18.0% for Yes versus 1839.2% for No—reveal severe mispricing on the No side, likely due to illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty, with a high Cliff Risk Index of 10 indicating potential sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 expiration. With 201 days to resolution, this market appears to be a low-activity confirmation bet on Republican dominance in a safe GOP seat rather than a genuine price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade