Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in a 91% win probability for VA-03, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, though the extreme 1,839% implied yield on the "No" side suggests minimal liquidity for contrarian positions. With only $28.47 in 24-hour volume against $26,386 open interest, this market is relatively illiquid despite the tight 2¢ spread, and the 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election leaves substantial room for political shifts. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled on this consensus view, though the high cliff risk index of 10 warrants caution given potential late-cycle volatility.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade