Will the Democratic Party win the VA-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided outcome with Democrats at 92¢, yet the zero 24-hour volume and modest $21.5K open interest suggest minimal conviction or liquidity behind this consensus. The massive 2091.8% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the extreme skew rather than genuine Republican viability, indicating this is likely a one-sided market where the Democratic lean in VA-04 is well-established but poorly arbitraged due to low trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade