Will the Democratic Party win the VA-08 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided Democratic advantage at 94¢, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $26.6K open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially illiquid. The "No" side's implied yield of 2,849.7% reflects the extreme asymmetry—a Republican win would be a massive upset, though the 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides substantial room for political shifts. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 warrants caution, as it indicates potential for sharp repricing if circumstances change materially in Virginia's 8th district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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