Will the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $34,662 in open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2,416.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely unsustainable, indicating either deep mispricing or that the position is being held as a speculative lottery ticket rather than a serious probability assessment. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the lack of trading activity and extreme yield asymmetry (Yes at 2,416% versus No at 13.7%) suggest this seat is heavily favored for Democrats, making Republican victory a very low-conviction bet among traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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