Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,850% implied yield on the "Yes" side despite $0 in 24-hour volume, suggesting the 6¢ price reflects stale liquidity rather than genuine market consensus on Republican chances in this heavily Democratic Vermont seat. The massive yield asymmetry (2,850% vs. 11.6%) and $36.6k open interest indicate trapped capital, likely from early positions that haven't been arbitraged away due to low trading activity and a wide 1¢ spread. With over 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliable for prediction purposes, though the pricing does align with Vermont's strong Democratic lean in House races.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade