Will the Democratic Party win the WA-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided outcome with Democrats at 93¢, yet the zero 24-hour volume and modest $24.8K open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this probability. The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus 2416.7% for No—reveal severe mispricing on the No side, likely reflecting the illiquidity trap where backing the Republican candidate offers astronomical returns but virtually no realistic path to profit given the deep Democratic lean in WA-02. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this market appears to be a liquidity desert where the extreme odds may not reflect genuine uncertainty so much as the difficulty of finding counterparties willing to bet against the Democratic consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade