Will the Democratic Party win the WA-07 House seat?

The Democratic position in WA-07 is priced at an extremely high 93¢, implying near-certainty of holding the seat, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $20k in open interest, suggesting illiquidity and potentially stale pricing. The extreme 2416.7% implied yield on the No side reflects the minimal risk premium for betting against Democrats, though this asymmetry is typical for heavily favored outcomes rather than a sign of mispricing. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in strong Democratic fundamentals for this district, but the lack of recent trading activity warrants caution about whether this reflects current consensus or outdated positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade