Will the Democratic Party win the WA-09 House seat?

The 93¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Democratic retention of Washington's 9th district, though the extreme 2424.5% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe mispricing on the Republican side—likely due to illiquidity, as evidenced by zero 24-hour volume despite $16.6k open interest. The 1¢ spread is tight, but the 13 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score suggest potential for volatility as we approach the November 2026 election, particularly if district demographics or candidate quality shift unexpectedly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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