Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

The 81¢ price reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile, with the "No" side offering a stratospheric 9,056% implied yield against just 498% for "Yes"—a classic sign of tail-risk pricing where traders are heavily hedging against a Plaid Cymru upset despite the high baseline probability. With only 17 days to resolution and $105k in 24-hour volume against $11.5M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to positions outstanding, creating potential slippage risk if the market moves sharply. The 147% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (4/10) suggest this race remains genuinely uncertain despite the consensus lean, particularly given the high information arrival rate of 1.6 news items per hour in the final stretch before the May 7 election.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).

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