Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?

This market prices gold settling in the $4,200-$4,600 range at just 19 cents with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,103.5% on the yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or minimal conviction from traders given the $4,200 floor represents only a 5-6% move from current spot levels around $2,000. The 74-day timeframe and extremely thin 24-hour volume of $88 against $14.5M open interest indicate severe liquidity constraints that likely explain both the aggressive yield and the flat 7-day price action, making this a high-risk venue for position building. The neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index suggest no imminent catalyst is driving pricing, though the massive yes-side yield warrants investigation into whether this reflects genuine tail-risk hedging or simply illiquid market dysfunction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Indicators

Regime

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