Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?

The 4% probability reflects extremely low conviction that SpaceX's IPO valuation will fall below $1.25T, with the market pricing in a strong expectation of a higher valuation despite the token's negligible 7-day price movement. The extreme realized volatility of 3,821% and moderate cliff risk index of 24 suggest significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or timing, though the thin $211K daily volume and tight 1¢ spread indicate limited liquidity for position adjustments. With an information arrival rate of just 0.7 events per hour and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a speculative long-tail bet with minimal near-term catalysts, making it vulnerable to sudden repricing if IPO timing or valuation guidance shifts materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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