What is the current probability for "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 98¢ (98% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 17, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 48.3% and 8522.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal.

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98¢

Bid/Ask 93/98¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $100·Closes Jun 17, 2026·57d remaining

KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2

7-day price12 snapshots · 3 regime

93¢93¢ current

Apr 143¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a probability signal. The massive 3640.7% implied yield on the "No" side and 1630% risk-adjusted yield suggest severe mispricing or a broken market mechanism rather than genuine conviction that Fed rates will stay at or below 3.2% by mid-2026. With 62 days to expiration and a 9¢ spread, this contract lacks the trading activity needed for price discovery, and the Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates potential resolution complications.

Resolution rules

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.2% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 48.3%

IY (No) 8522.9%

Adj IY 4032%

CRI 13

Overround 3.2%

LAS 0.05

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	48.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8522.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4032%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:34:20 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →