What is the current probability for "When will Brex IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 1, 2027. 313 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Brex IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1339.6% and 10.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Brex IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Brex IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that When will Brex IPO?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing March 1, 2027. This market is essentially illiquid with only $6 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 0/8¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $6·Closes Mar 1, 2027·313d remaining

KXIPOBREX-27MAR01

Analysis

4d ago

This market is essentially illiquid with only $6 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The extreme 1,319% implied yield on a Yes resolution reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction, and the wide 8¢ bid-ask spread further limits practical execution. With 318 days to expiry and Brex's IPO timeline remaining uncertain, this contract appears too thin to serve as a meaningful probability signal.

Resolution rules

If Brex confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1339.6%

IY (No) 10.1%

Adj IY 670%

CRI 12

Overround -0.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1339.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	670%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:40:30 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOBREX-27MAR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →