What is the current probability for "When will Glean IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 1, 2026. 132 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Glean IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4323.1% and 17.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Glean IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Glean IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that When will Glean IPO?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 4,168% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 17¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote.

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17¢

Bid/Ask 6/15¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Sep 1, 2026·132d remaining

KXIPOGLEAN-26SEP01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 4,168% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 17¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 16 indicates significant binary event risk given the 137-day timeframe to potential IPO resolution. The flat 7-day price action combined with zero trading activity suggests this market lacks sufficient participation to be reliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If Glean confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4323.1%

IY (No) 17.6%

Adj IY 2162%

CRI 16

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4323.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	17.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2162%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:44 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOGLEAN-26SEP01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →