What is the current probability for "When will Glean IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 19¢ (19% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 1, 2027. 313 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Glean IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 568.8% and 23.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Glean IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Glean IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that When will Glean IPO?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing March 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $4 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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19¢

Bid/Ask 17/26¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $4·Closes Mar 1, 2027·313d remaining

KXIPOGLEAN-27MAR01

7-day price3 snapshots · 3 regime

19¢17¢ current

Apr 1117¢Apr 13

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $4 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 560% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the thin market and wide 9¢ spread, while the neutral regime score and modest 7-day decline from 19¢ to 17¢ suggest limited conviction among traders. With 318 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract carries meaningful uncertainty around Glean's IPO timeline, but the lack of market depth makes it unsuitable for meaningful analysis or capital deployment.

Resolution rules

If Glean confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 568.8%

IY (No) 23.9%

Adj IY 284%

CRI 5

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	568.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	284%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:25:30 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOGLEAN-27MAR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →