When will SpaceX IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. The market is pricing in near-certainty (96%) that SpaceX will IPO by mid-2027, though the extremely lopsided implied yields—3.7% for Yes versus 2,135.6% for No—reveal severe illiquidity with only $8,364 in open interest and minimal daily volume of $99.12.
Analysis
The market is pricing in near-certainty (96%) that SpaceX will IPO by mid-2027, though the extremely lopsided implied yields—3.7% for Yes versus 2,135.6% for No—reveal severe illiquidity with only $8,364 in open interest and minimal daily volume of $99.12. The flat price action over seven days combined with a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market has settled into a stable consensus, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 warrants caution around potential binary resolution events.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-27JUN01 yes 100