What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 1, 2027. 313 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6.1% and 2213.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing March 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) of a SpaceX IPO by March 2027, yet shows virtually no trading activity with $0 in 24-hour volume and only $4,597 open interest, suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price.

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96¢

Bid/Ask 95/96¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $4,597·Closes Mar 1, 2027·313d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-27MAR01

7-day price9 snapshots · 3 regime

95¢95¢ current

Apr 894¢Apr 18

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) of a SpaceX IPO by March 2027, yet shows virtually no trading activity with $0 in 24-hour volume and only $4,597 open interest, suggesting limited conviction despite the steep price. The asymmetric yield structure is striking—No positions offer a 1,797% implied yield versus just 7.3% for Yes—indicating the market heavily discounts the IPO scenario but compensates contrarian bettors with outsized returns if it fails to materialize. With 318 days to expiry and a modest 1¢ spread, the market appears to be pricing in Elon Musk's historical resistance to going public, though the recent 1¢ price decline over seven days suggests marginal skepticism creeping in.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6.1%

IY (No) 2213.4%

Adj IY 1107%

CRI 19

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2213.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1107%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:29:57 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-27MAR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →