Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

The 8¢ price reflects extreme skepticism about DeepSeek capturing the second-best AI model position by June 2026, with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 5,676% on the Yes side suggesting the market views this outcome as highly unlikely despite DeepSeek's recent competitive advances. The extremely thin 24-hour volume of $93.78 against $9,488 open interest indicates low liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions, while the 752% realized volatility signals this market has experienced dramatic price swings despite showing no movement over the past week. With 74 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, the high cliff risk index of 12 suggests significant tail risk around major AI model releases or benchmark updates that could dramatically shift probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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