Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability of Saudi military action against Iran over the next two weeks, with Yes shares at just 6¢ generating a theoretical 41,606% annualized yield—a classic deep out-of-the-money option dynamic. The 14-day expiry combined with minimal liquidity ($24.9k open interest, $12k daily volume) and zero price movement over seven days suggests limited conviction from traders, though the neutral regime score indicates no obvious directional pressure. The 16 Cliff Risk Index flags elevated tail risk given the geopolitical sensitivity and binary nature of the event, making this a thin-liquidity, high-leverage bet on imminent escalation that markets currently deem highly improbable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Regime

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