U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 28¢ price reflects a low-probability outcome with extremely asymmetric payoffs: a Yes resolution yields 363.8% while No yields only 55%, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial tail risk despite near-zero 24-hour volume and thin liquidity ($11.9M open interest with a 5¢ spread).
Analysis
The 28¢ price reflects a low-probability outcome with extremely asymmetric payoffs: a Yes resolution yields 363.8% while No yields only 55%, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial tail risk despite near-zero 24-hour volume and thin liquidity ($11.9M open interest with a 5¢ spread). With 258 days to expiry and only a 2¢ price movement over the past week, this appears to be a relatively stagnant market where traders are betting against a formal U.S.-Israel trade deal materializing before year-end 2026, though the high implied yield on Yes indicates meaningful uncertainty about geopolitical developments.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9121e50fc11b2041db7cfb1e966e964bbceeffc9360d66e6895341e31b61edf0 yes 100