Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 9¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for Volkov to hold the heavyweight title in 258 days, yet the extreme 1430% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 17¢ spread suggests this is an illiquid, potentially mispriced market where the ask-bid gap may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
The 9¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for Volkov to hold the heavyweight title in 258 days, yet the extreme 1430% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 17¢ spread suggests this is an illiquid, potentially mispriced market where the ask-bid gap may not reflect true consensus. The 651% realized volatility and 10-point Cliff Risk Index indicate significant price instability, likely driven by sporadic UFC heavyweight division news rather than consistent trading activity, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid betting opportunity.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0xfc05cd1a989e068b5adb4d63700784d32b292c243b2f63db3d85469bce57759b yes 100