Who will IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Who will IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market shows a notable 200-basis-point arbitrage gap versus Polymarket (9¢ vs 11¢), suggesting Kalshi traders are pricing Vanta's IPO odds slightly lower despite identical resolution criteria and timeline.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows a notable 200-basis-point arbitrage gap versus Polymarket (9¢ vs 11¢), suggesting Kalshi traders are pricing Vanta's IPO odds slightly lower despite identical resolution criteria and timeline. The extreme 1619% implied yield on Yes reflects the binary nature of the bet, but zero 24-hour volume and just $4,367 open interest indicate minimal conviction and execution risk. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, the market appears underpriced relative to recent upward momentum (6¢ to 8¢ over seven days), though the cross-venue discrepancy warrants caution before taking a directional position.
Resolution rules
If Vanta confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPO-26-VANTA yes 100