Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Sean O'Malley next?
0x79eff647667574db759c2d4a87f1dd5dde679bff865eb2b2e6c39022d702fb14 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 499.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.9% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 1.91 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 4315% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 8.08 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
380 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Merab Dvalishvili is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Merab Dvalishvili is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Dvalishvili is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x79eff647667574db759c2d4a87f1dd5dde679bff865eb2b2e6c39022d702fb14 yes 100