Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
14 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
837 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028” vs “Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly
KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden
KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Abigail Spanberger
KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitmer
KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Wes Moore
KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel
KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Stewart
KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Tim Walz
KX2028DRUN-28-TWAL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Stephen A. Smith
KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris
KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Cluster 2
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Gretchen Whitmer endorse a single, specific person in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026?" 28¢; kalshi "Will the 2028 presidential election occur?" 93¢; kalshi "Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?" 84¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›Negligible 2028 ticket probability
- ›Low market confidence in Whitmer-led pairings
- ›Focus on 2026 senate endorsements
- ›Current 2028 speculation remains speculative
What moved the line
- Jul 17Gretchen Whitmer↑18pp5→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Abigail Spanberger↑15pp4→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez↑6pp63→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez↑4pp59→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Stephen A. Smith↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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