Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
779 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028” vs “Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden
KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris
KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel
KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Stewart
KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly
KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Stephen A. Smith
KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Wes Moore
KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitmer
KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Cluster 2
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?: Before Election Day
KXTRUMPRUN-28NOV07
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPRUN-28JAN01
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 28¢; kalshi "Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 16¢; kalshi "Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 7¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›3% chance to be the first to declare
- ›2% chance to declare before November 2028
- ›Negligible odds for various Democratic tickets
- ›Low market-implied candidacy probability
What moved the line
- Sep 17Kamala Harris↓22pp80→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Gavin Newsom↓17pp85→68¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Stephen A. Smith↑10pp9→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Rahm Emanuel↓8pp81→73¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Hunter Biden↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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