Will Gretchen Whitmer run for president in 2028?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
14 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
885 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028” vs “Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden
KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris
KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel
KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Stewart
KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitmer
KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Abigail Spanberger
KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly
KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Tim Walz
KX2028DRUN-28-TWAL
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Stephen A. Smith
KX2028DRUN-28-SAS
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Wes Moore
KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Cluster 2
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 30¢; kalshi "Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?" 1¢; kalshi "Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?" 0¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›1% chance of Whitmer declaring
- ›5% chance of Shapiro-Whitmer ticket
- ›Lack of market momentum for Whitmer bid
What moved the line
- Jun 5Hunter Biden↑7pp16→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Hunter Biden↑5pp23→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Hunter Biden↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Gretchen Whitmer↑4pp23→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Gavin Newsom↑3pp84→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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