Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows asymmetric risk pricing with the "No" side offering a striking 251.6% implied yield versus 79.6% for "Yes," suggesting traders heavily discount a Trump-al-Sharaa meeting despite the 64¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows asymmetric risk pricing with the "No" side offering a striking 251.6% implied yield versus 79.6% for "Yes," suggesting traders heavily discount a Trump-al-Sharaa meeting despite the 64¢ price. The 9¢ spread and modest $60 daily volume indicate thin liquidity for a market with over $15k open interest, creating potential slippage for larger positions. With extreme realized volatility at 281% and a vol ratio of 3.19, the market has experienced significant price swings (down 4¢ in 7 days), though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk suggest no imminent catalysts are priced in ahead of the 258-day expiration.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6fb581b1640953e05e46d454f5e7907c5988dcade6781c8c8f812b32a47a1d45 yes 100