What is the current probability for "Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 54¢ (54% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 132.3% and 168.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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54¢

Bid/Ask 13/95¢·Spread 82¢·Vol $0·OI $183.659·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0xfad2167317be5a9fa5f7d2290494692d320a93dced3a4160119894d48e960a40

7-day price1833 snapshots · 17 regime

57¢53¢ current

Apr 823¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 132.3%

IY (No) 168.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 1323%

VR 10.73

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	132.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	168.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1323%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.73	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.53	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.477

Spread

82¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:35:51 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:23:56 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfad2167317be5a9fa5f7d2290494692d320a93dced3a4160119894d48e960a40 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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