Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
0x24b9dfcb6eb42bae30e02170a75e7750ba7b0368c3d1b743d04a7fdef323eda8 · closes Jun 30, 2026 · 75 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 324.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 729.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.72 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1669% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 9.50 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 7.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 207% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
752 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
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