Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?
0x0cdc3bfe31c4702ebf8d0879c0dd885fa6ef050cee4611a8e48e382b20de38f4 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 262 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 467.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 41.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 7.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 772% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.46 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 467% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
130 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x0cdc3bfe31c4702ebf8d0879c0dd885fa6ef050cee4611a8e48e382b20de38f4 yes 100