Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Polymarket. Janeese Lewis George is priced at a substantial 65¢ across venues (Polymarket 65¢, Kalshi 66¢), implying a two-thirds probability of winning the D.C.
Analysis
Janeese Lewis George is priced at a substantial 65¢ across venues (Polymarket 65¢, Kalshi 66¢), implying a two-thirds probability of winning the D.C. Democratic primary, though the extremely high implied yield on the "No" side (1,157%) and realized volatility of 274% suggest significant uncertainty beneath the surface price. The market has surged 19 cents over seven days on relatively thin liquidity ($44 daily volume, $13.5k open interest), and the 1.41 volatility ratio indicates elevated tail risk that may not be fully priced into the 65¢ level. With 18 months until the June 2026 primary and an information arrival rate of 0.7 events per hour, this remains a speculative position vulnerable to candidate announcements or political developments.
Also on kalshi at 56¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x2f7fa03d7387acee6140c2feada2e3876378549defc075856373adccd3c53a84 yes 100