Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24.7M in open interest, suggesting the $24,753 figure may reflect historical positions rather than active trading. The 14¢ price implies Democrats have only a 14% chance in WI-07, but the asymmetric implied yields (1,117% for Yes vs. 29.6% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicate significant model uncertainty and potential mispricing given the long 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election. The stable 7-day price action at 14¢ combined with the 2¢ spread suggests this market may be stale and unresponsive to actual political developments in the district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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