Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites in WI-07 at 86%, but the extremely skewed implied yields—1117% for a No position versus 29.6% for Yes—signal severe illiquidity with only $14.9 in 24-hour volume against $20.8M open interest, creating outsized risk-reward asymmetry. The modest 1-cent price decline over 7 days and tight 3¢ spread suggest the market has settled into a stable consensus, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 warrants caution given the 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election. This appears to be a low-liquidity niche market where position sizing matters significantly for any trader considering entry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade