What is the current probability for "Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on September 10, 2026. 141 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1035.7% and 64.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing September 10, 2026.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 19/20¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $10.184·OI $2,114.161·Closes Sep 10, 2026·141d remaining

0x6930feafc2b096b6d9821f7f42a028b955dd8c71f1578f275b7c2314e01b9b31

7-day price67 snapshots · 3 regime

20¢20¢ current

Apr 1112¢Apr 21

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 19¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 1147.9%Close-time delta 130h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Rodgers retires from the NFL before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement from Rodgers that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred, as long as the announced retirement is stated to take effect before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Announcements that Rodgers will retire after the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Aaron Rodgers, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1035.7%

IY (No) 64.7%

Adj IY 492%

CRI 4

LAS 0.05

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1035.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	64.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	492%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:49:47 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x6930feafc2b096b6d9821f7f42a028b955dd8c71f1578f275b7c2314e01b9b31 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →